Japan Political Economy (memo)
A personal memo by an outsider.
The Japanese economy, or the last economic expansion is
over, whatever the cabinet office says.
That said, we can't be sure whether it will bottom out
soon (or already).
Too much depends on the political process in and outside Japan.
Inside Japan, it's a qustion of what the gov't
does or doesn't going into or after the upcoming July
Upper House elections.
And that means the scheduled tax hike.
(1) If "commitment" means "to commit," then we ain't seen nothing
yet.
(2) But if the bluffing game seen in the recent past is again
chosen, we maybe near the end of a temporary "dip."
(3) (what follows is more or less speculation)
An alternate pattern to (2) is that though his loyal staff want
him to take path (2), the PM isn't willing.
Though we can't be sure, it's probably his last term
-lame ducks, anyone?
Depeding on the election outcome, we may witness
another extension of his term as leader of the LDP.
No, this is not about anothe G-7, oops, G-8, country.
He may have lost the passion and/or hopes for
amending the 1946 Constiution.
Indeed, assuming current public opinion polls are useful,
the Japanese people support his economic programs aright,
but just don't share the same antipathy towads the
"Constituion that was forced on us," especially the elderly
AND the young,
Whatever show of arrogance, he may actually be stressed out.
For example, being harshly criticized by your college mentor
and alumni sniors(if in an interview by a liberal-leaning writer,
"The Abe Family and its Three Generations")
can weigh on you - on anyone.
He's basically a member of the establishment, and as such,
probably values reputation within that circle.
As an aside, the above trait, if it indeed checks any rash actions,
won't apply to a cast-out or would-be "avenger" politician.
